May 24, 2026
The Risk-First Trading Checklist
Write down what would prove the idea wrong before deciding whether the risk is worth taking.
Define wrong first
A trading plan does not start with a target. It starts with: “What would prove this view wrong?” The clearer the invalidation, the less room there is for live improvisation.
A reviewable plan needs at least three parts: structure, invalidation, and sizing boundary. Structure explains why the market is worth watching. Invalidation explains when the view stops being valid. Sizing defines how much the account can lose if the idea fails.
Put volatility into the plan
Volatility is not background noise. It determines stop distance, holding period, and position size. The same pattern can have a completely different risk profile in a different volatility regime.
If volatility requires a wider stop, size should come down with it. If size cannot come down, the trade may not fit the account.
Review execution, not emotion
Review is less useful when it only explains how the trade felt. The better questions are concrete: Was the plan complete? Did execution deviate? Was the deviation preventable?
This note is for education and research only. It is not investment advice, a performance claim, or personalized trading guidance.